Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 0.016581 0.018772 0.021147 0.023912 0.027045 0.030485 0.034550
2025-08-31 0.012901 0.015864 0.019350 0.023757 0.029186 0.035661 0.043984
2025-09-07 0.011158 0.014519 0.018702 0.024297 0.031596 0.040814 0.053369
2025-09-14 0.009425 0.012841 0.017292 0.023525 0.032049 0.043328 0.059435
2025-09-21 0.008267 0.011721 0.016404 0.023229 0.032950 0.046344 0.066282
2025-09-28 0.007214 0.010597 0.015348 0.022524 0.033125 0.048269 0.071662
2025-10-05 0.006803 0.010326 0.015437 0.023415 0.035605 0.053612 0.082396
2025-10-12 0.006365 0.009957 0.015327 0.023969 0.037590 0.058346 0.092596
2025-10-19 0.005998 0.009652 0.015271 0.024573 0.039670 0.063355 0.103623
2025-10-26 0.005512 0.009107 0.014783 0.024433 0.040531 0.066483 0.111860
2025-11-02 0.005116 0.008667 0.014415 0.024439 0.041601 0.069997 0.120988
2025-11-09 0.004675 0.008110 0.013804 0.023975 0.041822 0.072088 0.127832
2025-11-16 0.004400 0.007819 0.013624 0.024247 0.043361 0.076596 0.139407
2025-11-23 0.004076 0.007413 0.013212 0.024079 0.044110 0.079796 0.148946
2025-11-30 0.003897 0.007248 0.013205 0.024626 0.046183 0.085500 0.163566
2025-12-07 0.003540 0.006727 0.012511 0.023844 0.045715 0.086504 0.169374
2025-12-14 0.003286 0.006374 0.012096 0.023544 0.046119 0.089143 0.178532
2025-12-21 0.003003 0.005941 0.011494 0.022829 0.045652 0.090061 0.184334
2025-12-28 0.002942 0.005936 0.011708 0.023733 0.048453 0.097568 0.204112
2026-01-04 0.002843 0.005848 0.011752 0.024294 0.050601 0.103936 0.222081
2026-01-11 0.002756 0.005776 0.011820 0.024906 0.052901 0.110785 0.241659
2026-01-18 0.002598 0.005541 0.011539 0.024765 0.053595 0.114348 0.254427
2026-01-25 0.002466 0.005352 0.011337 0.024771 0.054603 0.118640 0.269167